Richmond Park By Election Prediction UPDATED WITH RESULT

Posted: December 2, 2016 in Political musings
Tags: , , , , , ,

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In what will be rightly reported as a massive rejection of Brexit by the voters, we predict that Liberal Democrat Sarah Olney will deliver the Lib Dems’ first by-election win in 10 years, beating a famously anti-European candidate, and not in recount territory either.

This will quite rightly be seen as the latest green shoots in a Lib Dem revival, a disastrous result for Labour (who should never have run a candidate here but did so out of sheer mulish stubbornness), a disastrous result for UKIP who very volubly backed the dilletante right winger Zac Goldsmith, and will support many Parliamentarians’ calls for a second referendum to be held on the terms of any “Brexit” before it is approved.

48We wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the pound firm overnight. And we look forward breathlessly to all the excuses from Farage, Johnson, May, Rees-Mogg and the rest of the Brexit rabble, who, of course, will blithly deny it has anything to do with Brexit at all.

We estimate a Lib Dem majority of between two and four thousand, a massive swing in itself.

If Brexit never happens, its demise will be tracked back to this day.

 

RESULT:

Sarah Olney (LD) 20,510 (49.68%, +30.41%)

Zac Goldsmith (Independent former Tory) 18,638 (45.15%)

Christian Wolmar (Lab) 1,515 (3.67%, -8.68%)

Howling Laud Hope (Loony) 184 (0.45%)

Fiona Syms (Ind) 173 (0.42%)

Dominic Stockford (CPA) 164 (0.40%)

Maharaja Jammu and Kashmir (Love) 67 (0.16%)

David Powell (ND) 32 (0.08%)

LD maj 1,872 (4.53%)

Electorate 77,243; Turnout 41,283 (53.45%, -23.01%)

Well we got one right, fractionally under-estimating the Lib Dem majority with overturned a previous Conservative Party 20,000 majority for Goldsmith, breaking our string of ducks recently.

Sarah Olney’s victory speech was gracious and historic. After the shock Conservative victory in 2015 and collapse of the Lib Dems, the lie-riddled farce of the Brexit advisory referendum, the weak-kneed response by the Conservative Party, and the ludicrous election of Donald Trump, it makes cheering reading. And as for all those who have gleefully predicted the demise of the “liberal elite”, this is what a fightback looks like … We know you’ll just rush to your keyboards to agree.

Here is an extract.

A year and a half ago I was not involved in politics, I was not a member of a political party, I had never been involved in a political campaign, I had never thought about being a politician. But I knew I was a liberal. I believed in openness, tolerance, compassion, working with our neigbours around the world.

When I saw what happened at the general election last year I felt I had ot get involved.

I think a lot of people in this community had the same feeling after the referendum. Richmond Park is full of people like me who felt something was going wrong, that the politics of anger and division were on the rise, that the liberal tolerant values we took for granted were under threat. We perceived the Ukip vision of Britain in the ascendancy, intolerant, backward-looking, divisive, just as we see it in America and across Europe.

Well, today we have said no. We will defend the Britain we love. We will stand up for the open, tolerant, united Britain we believe in. The people of Richmond Park and North Kingston have sent a shockwave through this Conservative Brexit government and our message is clear: we do not want a hard Brexit, we do not want to be pulled out of the single market and we will not let intolerance, division and fear win.

 

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Comments
  1. Doug says:

    Given this falls within a constituency that Voted to stay at the referendum at a level of 80% and its one of the wealthiest in the nation hardly a rejection of Brexit or likely to have wider ramifications

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    • Stephen Yolland says:

      Rubbish Doug. Goldsmith is/was an arch Brexiteer and the scale of the swing (possibly in the 20%s) reflects the substantial anti-Brexit swing that has occurred after people digested the nonsense that Brexit always was and the unexpected implications for the country. This result will be right in line with opinion polls recorded recently.

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  2. underwriiter505 says:

    It’s a step. I hope for many more.

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  3. Pat A says:

    You are quite correct Yolly, Goldsmith was and is a rabid Brexiteer – and his majority of 23,000 has been completely converted into a victory of 2,000 for the Lib Dems – ie Sarah who is against Brexit and clearly and openly fought the election on that basis, won.

    I was appalled to see that Labour ran a candidate – mind you they only got 1,500 votes approximately, but still, the centre and left should unite against the lunacy that is today’s right wing which is staggering further and further right in a never ending competition to scream the loudest.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38178486

    Goldsmith’s 40% lead has swung the other way entirely to be a lead of 5% to the Lib Dems – doesn’t a swing of 45% show that the Brexit vote was a deluded anomaly?

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  4. Paul says:

    Surprise, surprise you got one right although it was patently obvious it would happen in an area with a large liberal presence. What the people in Richmond have to say means nothing to the large majority of the country so we will move on. The only downside means that we hill have the sanctimonious face of Tim Farron on our TV screens and Paddy Ashdown reminding us he was s soldier once.

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    • Stephen Yolland says:

      Surprise surprise now the British people actually understand what the tissue of lies Brexit was they want nothing to do with it. An historic swing, an historic victory, fought entirely as a mini-referendum on Brexit. You lost. Suck it up.

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      • Paul says:

        “The British People”……really, don’t hold your breath. Ms Olney’s got a great track record:
        1. Against Heathrow Expansion – LOST
        2. Against Brexit -LOST
        3. A Remoaner – PATHETIC
        3. Member of the Lib Dems – INSIGNIFICANT.
        If you think this result is going to make any major difference you are in cuckoo land.

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        • Stephen Yolland says:

          My, my what a nasty hate-filled little man you appear to have turned into based on the bile you regularly send me. Meanwhile, enjoy watching that intelligent liberal elite you hate so much take the country back from the horrible, brutal place it is turning into.

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        • Stephen Yolland says:

          I really would be most grateful if you didn’t bother visiting the blog again. Unless you can keep a civil tongue in your head you will not be approved for posting anyway so there doesn’t seem much point.

          Like

  5. Pat A says:

    Thank you Yolly for asking the hate-filled ones to leave – but if they don’t, we could just ignore them and leave them shouting into the wind (I think that that’s the phrase isn’t it?).

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  6. Pat A says:

    BTW Yolly, you were right again – the pound has strengthened to a three month high!

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