The 2016 Presidential election result – in advance.

Posted: November 7, 2016 in Political musings
Tags: , , , , , , ,

youcan

 

We haven’t been doing very well with our predicting, recently. There: that’s a sentence you don’t normally expect in the world of political punditry.

But the fact is we got the Brexit vote totally wrong – we were hardly Robinson Crusoe in that regard, but that doesn’t matter – and we also failed to predict a Conservative overall majority in the UK, but again, almost no-one got that right either and it was a very close run thing … from a psephological point of view the change in the Lib Dem seats in the West can literally be assumed to have taken place in the last 48 hours, so we weren’t the only people surprised.

But for a year now, we have been confidently predicting a Clinton victory in the 2016 Presidential election. Our analysis has ranged from “massive Clinton victory” to “comfortable Clinton victory” and at no stage have we EVER speculated that Trump could win.

And today, despite all the recent froth and bubble in the media, we repeat our prediction. Clinton’s got this. With a margin somewhere between “just” and “just about comfortable”. Which considering she has been subject to the longest period of personal vilification ever seen in modern political history, much of which has been entirely politically motivated and rank untruths, is really quite a remarkable thing. She has been pilloried, lied about, accused of ludicrous things, with a level of pure vitriolic hatred that can only be described as anti-democratic and neo-fascist in its expression. And she’s a woman. And anyone who thinks that there isn’t evidence of blatant sexism in some people’s denial of her right to be President is simply naive, just as many of the attacks on her health and stamina – which seem to be just fine when you consider her punishing schedule – are codes for “weak, poor little woman thing”.

Let’s be clear: we have previously pointed out at length that “No”, Clinton is not a perfect person. Who is, after all? Let alone in the field of politics. She is, however, a shining knight clothed in holy armour wielding a blazing sword of righteousness compared to Trump. That a large percentage of intending American voters can’t see that is truly distressing and disturbing to the rest of us.

We can’t bring myself to be angry with every Trump voter. After all, they’re perfectly entitled to disagree with us, and we know some of them personally, and they are patently obviously decent folk. Social media has dominated where they are getting their information from, and this is what’s dominating their social media , a highly sophisticated misinformation campaign mounted deliberately, and with malice aforethought.

So what we have been witnessing is a perversion of democracy. Let us hope that enough Americans agree so that after Tuesday we see some real and meaningful reform to both media coverage and the tone of campaigning. This morning on radio in Melbourne one of the more senior (and least alarmist) hosts remarked “America is broken. It’s like Humpty Dumpty, and I cant see how it’s ever going to be put back together again.” Which is a miserable thought for all who treasure much of what is good – even great – about America.

Anyway, back to the impending result. A lot of people have been opining that some Trump voters are hiding their intentions from pollsters because they’re embarrassed to admit they support him, and arguing that the phenomenon is “like Brexit”, which is all very well except right up to the Brexit vote it was always going to be close (Brexiteer Nigel Farage famously remarked that a 52-48 vote in favour of Remain should be ignored, then promptly changed his tune when his side won by that very margin), and speaking out against the EU was never something that the vast majority of Britons had any problem with.

It should also be noted that for someone to be so embarrassed to be supporting Trump that they would have to lie to pollsters yet still be intending to vote for him would require some very complex mental circumlocutions. And given the hurricane of criticism she has received, we think it just as likely that some Clinton supporters might not wish to express their support for her, so any “ashamed of Trump” effect would in all probably be evened out by an “ashamed of Clinton” effect. Indeed, if anything, the “enthusiasm” levels that are measured are lower for Clinton than Trump, so that effect would be greater.

So we simply do not believe, as the Trump side has been furiously talking up, that there is some vast unspoken well of support for the Republicans.

Essentially, we think the opinion polls have it about right, which is somewhere in the region of a 2-3% lead in the popular vote for Clinton, which is now climbing again, but a stronger lead for her in some key battleground seats. We think Trump may actually do better in some of the solid “red” seats than is currently expected, except it won’t matter because he’ll be piling up votes where he doesn’t need them.

There has been much talk about which the key swing states are. We all know about Florida, where we suspect Trump may just pull it off, following an erosion in support for Libertarian Gary Johnson which has caused a drift back to him, as people focus on the main game. But Florida really is too complex to call with any degree of certainty. Two other factors are complicating matters. Firstly there is some strong evidence that a significant percentage of early Republican voters have backed Clinton, which in a state with a very significant early voting percentage, and where the Democrats ground game is markedly better, may just tip the state back to her. It was won by Obama, remember. Secondly, Latinos in the state are voting in increased numbers, and as we have opined previously, Trump has very good reason to fear an uptick in the Latino vote. Because of our political preferences we are hopeful of a Clinton victory, but the psephologist in us urges caution. And in any very close election, we are minded to remember Bush v Gore, which we remain convinced was nothing more nor less than a judicial coup. Now, though, the Supreme Court is split 4-4 between Liberals and Conservatives, so any similar farrago this time may be avoidable … Hillary Clinton is ahead 48 – 42 percent among Florida voters who already have cast ballots.

Let us hope this election doesn’t come down to lawyers at dawn. One calculation has a 17% chance that Florida will be the “tipping point” state, yet again.

FLORIDA VERDICT Too close to call/Very close Clinton victory

Moving up the country, the next vital state is North Carolina. There were some early indications that Clinton might be in trouble in a state with a large black vote where there was less enthusiasm in black voters than in the Obama elections, in a state won by the Republicans last time, and in areas where Republican voter suppression has been seen at its most naked. The voter suppression laws have been largely declared invalid, but possibly too late to rescue the situation. Then again, President Obama, who is still a talisman for the African-American vote, has been strategically deployed to “get the black vote out”. If he succeeds, what might have been the narrowest win for Trump may turn into a narrow win for Clinton. There’s no question that the race is tight, but we perceive Clinton inching ahead in the last couple of days. In particular, a normally very reliable poll now has her up by three having previously had Trump ahead by four just a couple of weeks ago. In a reliable poll using the same methodology, that’s a significant movement, and in the last week Clinton has seemingly risen slightly further. The only impossible to discern factor is how far Libertarian candidate Johnson will fall. Five Thirty Eight actually says Trump is more likely to win, but we think there may be enough African-American enthusiasm to carry the day for the Democrats.

NORTH CAROLINA Too close to call/Very close Clinton victory

The next crucial contest is Ohio. We think that this can now be safely called in the Trump camp. He has been improving there steadily, and there is, clearly, a generalised move to the Republicans in the central states. Some of the key factors here are that Clinton is doing significantly less well with female voters here than generally, and Trump has garnered an historically high number of male voters.There is also a strong sense amongst the working class and non-college educated vote that they are being ignored by the elite, especially as regards trade deals and employment initiatives. The notably right wing Governor, Kasich, has ironically and pointedly refused to back Trump, but his general stance seems to have solidified Republican support.

OHIO Trump

Moving to the right, but only geographically, Pennsylvania seems equally locked in the Clinton column. The state seems to be delivering a solid lead of 4-6% for Clinton in survey after survey no matter how you dice and dust the results. That’s now too big for Trump to overhaul except in some mythical scenario where his vote is being under-estimated by 10-20%, which isn’t going to happen. A potential transit strike in Philly won’t help poorer voters of either party to get around on polling day. It remains to be seen whether the City’s attempt to injunct the strike is successful.

PENNSYVANIA Clinton

It is worth pointing out that no one has been elected president since 1960 without carrying two of the three key swing states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. This year, North Carolina has been added to that mix. We see the four states leaning to Clinton overall – just. Are we confident in that prediction? Not especially. In Florida and NC we could be dead wrong, as the current polls are well within margins of error. Interestingly, though, that can cut both ways. Take 3-4% off Clinton and Trump does very well indeed. Add 3-4% to Clinton and it becomes a Clinton landslide.

Can we get a better idea by looking at other close states? Maybe. But first a word overall. Nate Silver’s normally highly reliable 538 site has a movement back to Clinton from Trump in terms of their chances of winning of what may be a hugely significant 0.8% from the fourth to the fifth of November. This presumably reflects both the FBI’s confirmation that Clinton is to be charged with nothing regarding the endless email scandal, and the following:

The small state of Nevada should deliver it’s 6 votes to the Republicans without any difficulty. Except … the Democrats ground game here has been especially aggressive, particularly via organised labor and targeting the Latino community. If Trump loses Nevada – and he could – he’s in trouble.

Whilst New Hampshire has come back towards Trump in the very recent past, Clinton is still solidly ahead in the vast majority of polls, although there have been a couple that have it line ball or leaning Trump, but these come from polls that seem less reliable than some others, and one which is positively partisan. The role of the Libertarian candidate here will be crucial in a state where “alternative” candidates often do well. How well his vote holds up will probably decide the state, and at the moment he seems to be hanging onto enough votes to cruel things for Trump. It’s only 4 electoral college votes, but they’re four votes who if they went to Trump it would suggest a real Republican surge.

In Michigan, with its important 16 electoral votes, Clinton is holding onto about a 4% lead, with Gary Johnson’s vote holding much steadier than in some other places. Whilst the race unquestionably tightened in the last half of October the situation now seems more stable for Clinton, and possibly moving back to her slightly. The opposite is true in Iowa, where Trump is strengthening his position, as with many mid-West states.

Virginia was close for Obama but it is becoming increasingly suburban and – as it does – liberal. If Clinton were to lose it – we don’t think she will – she can kiss her hopes goodbye.

So: our prediction?

We predict that without Pennsylvania, Trump cannot win, even if he carries Ohio and Florida – unless he is able to also capture Michigan and Wisconsin. But both states have voted Democratic in the last six presidential elections and Clinton is ahead in both.

One of the interesting factors will be how early Florida declares – or is declared – by the media. Beyond the very fact of the significance of its votes going to Trump, because of the time difference a very early declaration for Trump could cause a cascade effect through the centre and west.

A Trump win in Pennsylvania would be very difficult for Clinton to make up. The loss of Pennsylvania together with Florida would be a real blow to her chances.

We see Clinton with anything from the barest 270 electoral college votes up to about 290-300. Trump probably about 230-256, maybe a few less.

Which means Trump will do better than anyone ever imagined possible until recently. But no: he isn’t going to win.

Betting odds are currently 4-1 or so ON Clinton and 4-1 or 5-1 AGAINST Trump. That looks about right.

Well, for today, at least. We’ll see more polls and analysis tomorrow, but till then, well, that’s what we think.

UPDATE as at 14.25 AEST

Polls have firmed for Clinton overnight with it now looking likely she will take Florida, unlikely she will take North Carolina but not impossible, not going to take Ohio, will take Pennsylvania, and will take Michigan and Nevada.

Somewhere, a fat lady is singing. Clinton wins.

 

 

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Comments
  1. underwriiter505 says:

    The friend on whose blog I sometimes post articles has this to say”

    “In 2008, I accurately predicted the winner in every state except Florida. In 2012, I accurately predicted the winner in every state. In 2016, I accurately predict that pigs will fly before I can do that well this year.”

    He has some years of experience as an opinion research professional, which I don’t so I know I can’t predict.

    But I might venture to predict one thing: if there is any distortion in the polls through people not wanting to admit whom they actually plan to vote for, it is not embarrassment on the part of Trump voters, who are anything but shy. It might, however, be reticence on the part of their wives, who do not want hubby to know they are voting for Clinton. I mention that as a possibility because, though I don’t want to hope for too much from it, I know for a fact there are some.

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  2. Paul brixey says:

    I got predicted both the Brexit result (although I was skocked when the result came through when I was in the middle of the Med). I also got the Tory prediction right and was never in doubt on that one due to what was happening in our country.

    Barring the peculiarities of the electoral college I believe Trump will win partly for the same reasons, one of which you have mentioned about the undecideds not declaring their hands. Add to that the swell of opinion against the political elite is a lot larger than people think and hopefully Clinton will end with egg on her face.

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  3. Pat A says:

    God save us from Terrible Trump as president – if he gets elected we’ll all be dead in a few years when he starts a war with someone and doesn’t realise he’s done it – he thinks he can be endlessly offensive to people and just get away with it – but people have their pride and someone is bound to react badly – God help us all!

    We thought it was bad enough when Bush was president – so many of the Far Right Evangelicals are trying to bring about ‘the end of days’ that watching politics has become terrifying – and it could get a whole lot worse
    .
    I do hope and pray that Underwriter is correct and even if some husbands vote for Trump, the wives will vote against Trump!

    (Mind you I can remember some friends on Care2 saying last American election that their electronic voting had been interfered with and a vote for Obama was immediately switched to Romney – and it did it again and again no matter how many times you tried. Videos appeared on YouTube. The voting machines were apparently owned by Romney’s son. Whether you complained or not depended if you were a lone woman in a polling station full of aggressive Right Wingers or if you had someone there to support you and things were calmer.).

    Am off to pray some more – I do hope you are right Yolly and Hillary wins, I don’t like her (her adoration of big business and GMOs), but I don’t want to see the apocalypse soon either!

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  4. richard says:

    still think you think too much.

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  5. Nicely written, Yolly. I agree with much of it but I do think that there is a reverse pro-Trump Bradley effect in the works here that could help him take some of the battleground states. It’s a matter of GOTV efforts in places such as Philly and Pittsburgh.

    Latinos came out in droves in FL…a good sign for the Democrats. Maybe Trump’s opening volley against Mexicans will be his destruction.

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  6. Like this? I love it! Well done! You have maintained your 100% record!

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  7. Nakakagigil says:

    Predicting is hard, especially when it’s about the future. But it’s doubly hard when smugness and sanctimony clouds the eyes, as it has here. You pretend to see Trump supporters as “embarrassed” to disclose their intentions rather than “reluctant” due to the asymmetry and bigotry at work in the culture and mass media, not to mention the fear of violence directed toward them by Clintonistas. You pretend Democrats by contrast who are not embarrassed to disclose intentions is a sign of electoral purity rather than an indication that Progressives lack the genetic trait that causes embarrassment in normal humans. You pretend Clinton opposition is rooted in her gender, forgetting the unhinged, insane vitriol poured on Sarah Palin, who never had hundreds of FBI investigators looking into her criminal conduct, or never stole a couch out of the White House, or never fired any White House Travel Office personnel, or never lied under oath to the FBI about her role in the firings, or never committed perjury, obstruction of justice or subornation of perjury during a federal grand jury inquiry, or never systematically looted a Federal Savings & Loan Association that cost taxpayers $60 million to bail out, or never stole hundreds of FBI files of political opponents, or never undertook a Pay4Play effort selling government favors in exchange for cash contributions to the family foundation, or never mishandled tens of thousands of classified email messages on a private server that was hacked by 5 foreign intelligence services, or never sold Presidential pardons in collusion with her brother, or never looked bereaved families in the eyes and lied about the circumstances of their hero sons’ deaths to preserve a worthless throwaway line uttered at a nominating convention, or never was listed in federal criminal filings as an unindicted co-conspirator, or never was subpoenaed to appear before 5 criminal grand juries investigating her criminal conduct, or never hid subpoenaed Castle Grande billing records under her bed in the White House bedroom for two years to prevent their discovery by a federal grand jury during its term of empanelment, or . . .

    It’s not worth the time to rebut point-by-point this inanity. It’s enough to point out that you got EVERYTHING wrong. And you got EVERYTHING wrong about Brexit. And you got EVERYTHING wrong about UK Parliamentary elections. And you’ll continue to get EVERYTHING wrong until you get help removing the tape from your eyes, wiping off the smugness off your face, removing the plugs from your ears, and buying a return ticket back to planet Reality. The fat lady sang alright. But it was just Stephen Yolland in a woman’s dress.

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    • Stephen Yolland says:

      An interesting rant, but given the fact that Clinton comfortably won the popular vote, your entire thesis is, essentially bollocks.

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      • Not really. The “Clinton won the popular vote” is a very lame argument.

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        • Stephen Yolland says:

          Why, Jon?

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          • Two reasons. Because now it’s irrelevant. It wasn’t about who could get more votes…she leads by what, a couple hundred of thousand in a country of 325,000,000? It was how they were distributed.

            It’s also how the voting went. Of the 700 counties Obama won twice, 209 ended up voting for Trump. It wasn’t about race or gender – although Trump stoked anger on that. It was about speaking on voters’ terms.

            https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/obama-trump-counties/

            http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-places-that-made-trump-president-1478902160

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            • Nakakagigil says:

              It’s not only that. Had popular votes mattered, the campaigns would have been waged differently. Neither candidate would have ever made any appearances in smaller states which wield a disproportionate influence on the outcome and ultimately helped determine the electoral result. The entire election would have revolved around campaigning and winning big cities. Trump never visited popular vote-rich places like Boston, New York, Newark, Baltimore, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, Seattle, Buffalo, Hartford, Rochester, Washington DC, Fairfax County, and dozens of others where he knew he would lose the state. He spent zero dollars on advertising placements in those media markets. Had popular votes mattered, he would have flooded airwaves and campaigned aggressively there, forcing Clinton to spend resources defending her hold.

              In addition, demoralized GOP supporters in Blue states like California, New York, Illinois and elsewhere would have voted knowing the election was purely a nationwide scramble for numbers rather than staying home knowing their vote in hopeless statewide races was simply an exercise in fruitlessness. In all likelihood, Trump would have won the popular vote under that scenario as well.

              It’s also worth recognizing that Obama sent a clear signal to illegal aliens prior to the election that they could illegally cast votes using their driver’s licenses without any chance of being detected or apprehended. His cynical and disgraceful remarks went viral and were spread through non-citizen immigrant communities like wildfire. There is a high probability that Clinton’s “popular vote plurality” included millions of ineligible votes that were cast illegally. Yolland simply doesn’t know what he’s talking about.

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              • Stephen Yolland says:

                You elegantly make the argument for reforming the electoral college with more mere opinion and waffle. The argument that “millions” of ineligible votes” is pure supposition to support your side of politics. Meh.

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      • Nakakagigil says:

        But wait, I thought you were the smug observer who told us “We think Trump may actually do better in some of the solid “red” seats than is currently expected, except it won’t matter because he’ll be piling up votes where he doesn’t need them.” So it’s immaterial if Hillary piled up votes (especially by illegal immigrants in New York and California) where she didn’t need them, but would have been dispositive had Trump done so.

        The popular vote angle is the empty bromide empty-headed progressives chant to themselves so they can get some sleep after setting fires in the street and looting stores “in protest.” Had popular votes mattered, the campaigns would have been waged in densely-crowded cities like Boston, New York, Newark, Baltimore, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, Seattle, Buffalo, Hartford, and other Blue zones, and then Trump would have won that vote. But since those states weren’t going to go his way, he never showed his face. Trying to take issue with a side issue to pretend that Clinton’s decades of criminality don’t matter, or even worse, don’t exist, shows how idle your thought process is.

        Team Clinton lost the election, and its hapless legions of clueless automatons can’t deal with it. The first post-election response for Democrat supporters was to undertake a massive temper tantrum, with five nights of violent, bloody protests in more than 50 cities. Their next act was to appoint a disgraceful anti-Semite Keith Ellison, someone with disturbing ties to the terrorist Muslim Brotherhood and the notoriously anti-Semitic Nation of Islam, as chair of the Democratic National Committee. The next act was to initiate pointless recounts in 3 key battleground states in hopes of stealing or overturning more than 100,000 votes that spelled the ultimate margin in the election. After it appeared certain those efforts would collapse in failure, House Democrats voted by a 2-to-1 margin to reinstall Nancy Pelosi as its House minority leader, under whose leadership the Party had lost at least 33 seats since 2006 and 70 seats since 2008, and who had helped engineer the disastrous Obamacare fiasco. As a last useless gasp of reality denial, Democrats began threatening or cajoling states’ electors to cast their obligated votes toward the losing ticket rather than the candidate who had incontestably won the election in conformity with the rules established in Article II as amended by the Twelfth Amendment of the Constitution. None of it is working. This is what Democrats do in lieu of developing a set of coherent governing policies that could provide opportunity and personal income growth to struggling families. It’s why they lost, and will continue to lose.

        Beginning in 2017, the GOP will control the White House, the Senate, the House of Representatives, all Supreme Count picks for the next 4 years (which will cement a majority for a generation), 34 state governor seats, 68 of 98 state legislative chambers, complete legislative control in 33 states, complete control of executive and legislative functions in 25 states, and executive and legislative control of more than 85% of counties. The Democrats will be locked out of power in Washington and will control just 16 governor seats and 13 state legislatures. Clinton lost 194 of the 207 counties that voted for Obama in either 2008 or 2012.

        At the end of 2016 voting, Republicans had won 10 of the previous 12 House elections, making 2006 and 2008 the anomalies rather than portents of the future. Beginning in 2017, the GOP will control governor seats and complete legislative control in 25 states. The Democrats will maintain this level of control in only 4 states, California, Hawaii, Delaware, and Rhode Island. After the 2016 election, Democrats will occupy fewer elective offices in the nation than at any time back to the 1920s. This will allow the GOP to wield the whip hand in legislative redistricting after the 2020 census, which will have enduring electoral impact for the next generation.

        Cry in your beer. Then go out and set a few more fires in the street. It’s all you guys have left.

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        • Stephen Yolland says:

          “The popular vote angle is the empty bromide empty-headed progressives chant to themselves so they can get some sleep after setting fires in the street and looting stores “in protest.”

          It’s only an “empty bromide” to the partisan-minded who don’t think it matters that the President of your country commands majority support, which blatantly he does not, now matter how you fulminate.

          “The next act was to initiate pointless recounts in 3 key battleground states in hopes of stealing or overturning more than 100,000 votes that spelled the ultimate margin in the election.”

          Initiated by the Green party, and only pointless if you think being certain you have the right result in any given election. Of course, you cheered mightly when SCOTUS shut down the recounts in Florida that would have seen the Democrats win and saved the world from the blight of George W Bush.

          The rest of your note is just angry, arrogant pro-Republican blather. I truly can’t be bothered, but I hope you feel better now.

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          • Nakakagigil says:

            Maybe it’s your fulminations that need to be reviewed. If you’re really incensed that Trump will be inaugurated absent a majority of votes, perhaps you’ll be surprised to discover Clinton would have suffered the same deficiency had she won. Oh yeah, that’s right, you don’t really do numbers. Yep, Clinton only won 48.3% of votes cast. Check with somebody that made it through two years of arithmetic training. That doesn’t constitute a “majority” despite all your fulminating. Oh, and Clinton also lost 30.2 states in a country with 50 states. And the election is about winning states, or states’ electors, not about popular votes. Clinton won 19.2 states and Trump won 30.2. Why is it that when Obama won 28 states in 2008, the country was united but when Trump won 30.2 states in 2016, the country was divided in an election where no candidate won a majority of votes?

            For years, you told us the GOP problem was their candidate would be “piling up votes where he doesn’t need them.” That’s a verbatim quote. Now that it’s happened to the Democrats, it’s a national emergency. Time to put your big boy pants on.

            The 2016 recounts in three states were initiated by the Green Party, but the Clinton campaign joined the effort rather than doing the honorable, sensible thing and opposing it and calling for an end to it. Everyone saw through the façade except for the willfully blind thousands of miles away. Of course, “sensible and honorable” doesn’t figure into the Democrat playbook. It’s over now, but you guys can’t get a grip yet. You never will. Since the 2000 election, you never have.

            And when the SCOTUS shut down Gore’s selective recounts in 2000 in just 4 counties in Florida that vote overwhelmingly Democrat, it was because there was a constitutional violation involved because there was no single method between the counties to ascertain accuracy (even two liberal justices concurred with this in a 7-to-2 ruling). Since the selective Gore recounts extended beyond the date required by Florida law, and because states enjoy absolute sovereignty under Constitutional law, they alone decide who the winners are. Have somebody explain to you what a Constitution is. The lawless crybabies in liberal-land can’t get their heads wrapped around laws being administered according to the rule of law.

            Later Florida recounts initiated by three different bi-partisan groups validated the Bush win. And statistical evidence showed that the corrupt Gore-aligned media that had inaccurately “called” the race for Gore an hour before all the polls closed in the state likely suppressed as many as 10,000 votes in Western Florida counties that went more than 75% for Bush (western Florida counties are on Central Standard Time unlike most of the state in the Eastern time zone). Had the media stayed out until all polls closed in conformity with their own rules of procedure, Bush would have won the state by more than 5,000 votes.

            This is the same crap we get every time a GOP candidate wins. Democrats just can’t wrap their heads around the fact that a majority of voters don’t want what they’re selling. The ONLY time a Democrat can win a nationwide election is when one convinces enough gullible voters that he’s a “post-partisan” moderate. In 2000, Democrat crybabies claimed the election was “stolen” in Florida. In 2004, a group of 20 Democrat crybabies in the House introduced a motion to exclude Ohio electoral votes because they pretended Bush had “stolen” 118,775 votes that constituted his margin of victory in that state. In 2016, Democrat crybabies are trying to convince GOP electors to vote for Hillary in contravention of the obligated duty under constitutional rules as well as federal and state laws. Hillary didn’t win a majority of votes and didn’t win a majority of electors. And she got walloped on the state-level count 30.2-to-19.8.

            California gave Clinton a 4.3 million vote advantage. So, in essence, Clinton won 1 state by 4.3 million votes and lost the other 49 states by 1.4 million. Millions of California ballots were tendered by illegal Mexican and Central American immigrants who were told by a lawless President Obama that there would be no legal repercussions if they illegally cast votes. And so they did. Every time a Democrat wins the White House, the Justice Department is turned into an arm of the Party. We suffer through years of Banana Republic-style law enforcement administration But now the adults will be back in charge. We can return to administration of justice in conformity with the rule of law. Justice’s first act will be to audit the California, Illinois, and New York electoral results to determine how many dead and illegal voters cast votes in 2016. Then we’ll find out how much disenfranchising vote theft is going on. You won’t like the result very much.

            Lastly, one has to love how, when it’s pointed out that Democrats are now the minority party at the federal, state, and local level, it’s characterized as “anger.” Who’s really angry here? The people who can’t accept an election result, or the people who won? Which are angrier, the guys who will control the Oval Office, the Senate, the House, 34 state governors’ chairs, 66 of 98 state legislative assemblies, 34 state legislatures, 25 complete state-level majorities, and so on, or the guys who are now in the minority EVERYWHERE except in 4 states? You can tell how angry GOP people are. They’re the ones loading up on cases of champagne.

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            • Stephen Yolland says:

              You really have too much time on your hands.

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            • Jaysus I could have written what you just wrote. A little less assertive however. A couple of points though.

              I think the GOP will have 33 and not 34 gubernatorial seats and 69 out of 99 legislative bodies.

              I know this because I’ve been pointing it out constantly to those who solely blame white males in this election. White women voted for the orange bastard as well.

              While I don’t like the results here, I did predict them. And I’m sick of the hard left’s view of the populace and the issues it tries to shove down their throat. The result is a disaster (in my opinion) but it’s a disaster that we all pretty much own regardless of whom we voted for.

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              • Stephen Yolland says:

                Well dear old Uncle Vlad certainly owns it. 200 false “conservative” websites pumping our lies aimed to discredit one side of politics. Hacking email servers and disclosing only one side of them.

                And then, of course, there’s the widespread voter suppression efforts aimed at African Americans throughout the old Confederacy.

                Yup, the Republicans sure did a great job.

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      • Nakakagigil says:

        GOP electors in states won by Trump are being inundated with death threats, hate mail, angry emails, and harassing phone calls. You don’t need to take my word for it. That comes from Democratic Party-aligned Politico. Such behaviour is a betrayal of rule-of-law-based Constitutional order, where angry, violence-prone, vicious, hate-filled mobs of unhinged bullies can attempt to overturn a legally-achieved, lawfully-derived election result. This shows the REAL character of the Democratic Party. Is it any wonder they’re in an electoral minority across the length and breadth of the country?

        http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/electors-under-siege-232774

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        • Stephen Yolland says:

          They are also standing up in their own right for their own independence as determined when their job was established in the first place. You must be very worried that they will exercise their right not to elect the wrong kind of candidate to the most important job in the world. How embarrassing that would be. Of course it would all be “death threats” causing that, just like the huge majority for Clinton in California was all “illegals”. Listen to yourself.

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          • Nakakagigil says:

            The only reason to worry is if the Left enacts its death and violence threats in the way it carried out a murder program against police officers this year. Listen to yourself. You can’t bring yourself to condemn death threats, hate mail, and violence directed against Constitutional order.

            The Left has lost its collective mind.

            Like

            • Stephen Yolland says:

              That comment is appalling. Of course I would condemn violence (or threats of violence) if au was aware of them. Why should I take your assertions as fact when clearly you are living in an alt-right fantasy as regards “illegal voters”.

              Like

        • Stephen Yolland says:

          Maybe this should worry you more – and gives good reasons as to why electors might consider Trump unfit?

          http://www.rawstory.com/2016/12/three-professors-of-psychiatry-call-for-neuropsychiatric-evaluation-of-trump-out-of-fears-hes-mentally-ill/

          Like

  8. Instead we now have to deal with what we now have – Donald Trump as president. There is no way around it. Clinton having more votes overall doesn’t mean anything. She’s back on Long Island, blaming everyone else for her loss.

    In the meantime, Trump has appointed Bannon as a top aide. A guy who has aligned himself at times with white nationalists. I’m getting in fights with them now on Twitter.

    Like

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