“This just in”, as they say. Just an update for fellow election tragics.
We were right to predict that Labour would hold the seat, but they actually did substantially better than predicted, achieving a very creditable result based, for certain, on good postal vote collection.
UKIP did moderately well overall but by no means well enough, and never mounted the challenge that was expected, the Tories did poorly, and the Lib Dems, Greens and Monster Raving Loony Party did abysmally badly, losing their deposits.
This will be seen as a very good result for Jeremy Corbyn and will presumably quieten, temporarily at least, calls for his head.
Jim McMahon, the 35-year-old leader of Oldham council, will swap the town hall for Westminster after persuading 17,322 people to vote for him. Turnout was 40.26% – not an embarrassment on a very rainy Thursday in December but still depressingly low. McMahon increased Labour’s share of the vote to 62.27%, up 7.49% from the general election in May. UKIP’s John Bickley, a Cheshire-based businessman, was runner-up, on 6,487. It was his fourth second place in Greater Manchester in less than two years, having lost out to Labour in by elections in Wythenshawe and Sale East in February 2014 and Heywood and Middleton in October 2015, failing again there in May’s general election.
Dark mutterings from UKIP – who are being portrayed as having suffered a bloody nose – on the conduct of the postal vote will probably be investigated. Nigel Farage blustered on Twitter: Evidence from an impeccable source that today’s postal voting was bent.
The needle on the dial for the Lib Dems didn’t shift upwards even a millimetre, as we suggested would be the case, which again shows what a difficult situation they are now in. A lively debate is already underway as to future Lib Dem tactics.
Here are the full election results, with all the percentages, from the Press Association.
Jim McMahon (LABOUR) 17,322 (62.27%, +7.49%)
John Bickley (UKIP) 6,487 (23.32%, +2.71%)
James Daly (CONSERVATIVE) 2,596 (9.33%, -9.65%)
Jane Brophy (LIBDEM) 1,024 (3.68%, -0.00%)
Simeon Hart (GREENn) 249 (0.90%, -1.05%)
Sir Oink-A-Lot (LOONY) 141 (0.51%)
Labour Majority 10,835 (38.95%) – 2.39% swing UKIP to Lab
Electorate 69,009; Turnout 27,819 (40.31%, -19.32%)
Result in 2015: Lab maj 14,738 (34.17%) – Turnout 43,137 (59.63%) Meacher (Lab) 23,630 (54.78%); Arbour (UKIP) 8,892 (20.61%); Ghafoor (C) 8,187 (18.98%); Harkness (LD) 1,589 (3.68%); Hart (Green) 839 (1.94%)
Well, This Is What I Think 