Obama and Romney

“I really don’t like you.” “I really don’t like you more.”  “Keep smiling though, eh?”  “OK”

This is a much better and more balanced article on the likely US election outcome than most. (Thank you to Richard Ember for forwarding it to me.)

And not just because it bears out what I have been saying, which is there has been a modest return to Obama, and also that Obama will indeed win Ohio (thus denying Romney the White House, because there is nowhere Romney can pick up the votes he won’t get in Ohio, even allowing that Romney will probably – not certainly – win Va and Fla.)

It also confirms my previous assertion that the national lead he currently enjoys is because Romney has been piling up votes where he doesn’t need them, in solid “red” states, as conservative voters (including Evangelical Christians, emboldened by Billy Graham’s flip-flop over whether Mormonism is a cult) decide they can, after all, hold their nose and vote for him.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/29/oct-28-in-swing-states-a-predictable-election/?smid=tw-share

Anyhow, in related polling, RCP’s rolling average today pulls Romney’s lead back from 0.9% to 0.8%, not enough to win the electoral college vote. Is there wild enthusiasm for Obama? No, there is not. Will he win, if the Democrats get their ground game right? Yes.

I am definitely going to write about something other than American politics soon, I promise. Promise, honest injun, I pinky swear.

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Comments
  1. mlshatto says:

    I sadly think that Hurricane Sandy may have been a game changer in Romney’s favor. We haven’t begun to assess the damages and how long it will take to get some semblance of normalcy restored. What is certain is that millions of people in urban areas that would normally go heavily for President Obama have had their lives completely disrupted. Public transportation at the moment is virtually non-existent in NYC, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and D.C. I fear that voter turnout will be severely depressed in precisely the areas most likely to vote for the president. Any poll taken before the storm in eastern states from Rhode Island to North Carolina does not reflect the current reality. If you have just spent four to five days without electric power, if your home has been damaged, if you haven’t been able to get to work for a week, voting is going to be low on your priority list. As the storm approached, I noticed an infuriating tactic put into place by the Romney camp. Film clips of storm warnings and updates on both weather.com and accuweather.com were repeatedly interrupted by attack ads put out by Romney or one of the SuperPACs supporting him. I couldn’t figure out any way to squelch them or fast-forward. Even Weather Underground featured pro-Romney banner ads. There was nothing comparable from Obama and his supporters. Apparently Romney is taking advice from Naomi Klein’s “The Shock Doctrine” and using a national emergency to disseminate his propaganda. Sorry this post is so long, but that’s the view from my location in south-central Pennsylvania on the third day of the storm.

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