Obama and Romney

“I hate your tie.” “Well, I hate your tie more.”

That the race for the White House has tightened is undoubted. That it is still likely Obama will get back seems probable.

This article explains the current situation well, taking the likely feelings over the second deabte and translating them into likely results. Polls released in the next few days will be helpful too, and, of course, the last debate on Monday is shaping up to be very significant.

It is also going to be significant, I think, that it is on Foreign Policy.

Romney is not as strong here as Obama, it is widely acknowledged, and Obama’s anger at Romney going after him on the Benghazi incident was one of his strongest moments in Debate 2. “I find that offensive” he snarled, eyes flashing, and suddenly the man looked every inch a President and Commander-in-Chief. Looking every inch a President and Commander-in-Chief is exactly what he needs to do to get re-elected, so Monday will be interesting to say the least. Anyway, for someone’s views other than mine you would do worse than to read this excellent summary:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/17/instant-reaction-polls-show-narrow-obama-advantage-in-second-debate/

What does interest me in this article and much recent analysis is that Romney appears to be doing better in Florida than I expected, (where I have been regularly predicting a Democrat scare campaign on Medicare – although maybe the on the ground campaign is yet to begin in earnest, and volunteers – who make up the bulk of party workers – really get energised in the last couple of weeks), not as well in Virginia as he needs to be at this stage, and definitely not as well in Ohio (where he is being massively outspent on TV by Obama).

As he has to win all three states to win, I stick with my prediction that he can’t. Win. But heigh ho, forecasting elections is a tricky business, and I may yet have egg on my face.

What is also clear is that one major implosion by either candidate now will not leave time for a recovery.

One side note: the Fox News panel of undecided voters was actually made up of of EX Obama supporters – not drawn from the ranks of the genuine undecideds or independents. Not surprisingly, despite everyone else calling it for Obama by one margin or another, these actively disillusioned voters felt Romney did well and looked “Presidential”. What next, if Romney falters? A panel of tea party supporters?

What a bizarre pretence of journalism that network really is. Rupert Murdoch – busy tweeting his support of Romney, no less – take yet another bow for what you have done to our body politic.

Advertisements
Comments
  1. Bill Hayes says:

    What is worrying about the election being so close is that it might come down to disputes of the count, voter denial, amd plain old vote rigging.

    Now if the debates had been along the lines of julia Gillard’s performance on misogyny – that would be a sight to see. (Incidently, where was your blog about that amazing thing?)

    Like

  2. Richard Ember says:

    How can you have the brass neck to talk about Fox news being biased (not that they’re not) when this happened in the debate?

    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2012/10/16/Crowley-Saves-Obama-with-false-fact-check

    Like

    • I can have the brass neck because her moderation error, if it was an error, was inadvertent – and made because “a terrorist act” and “an act of terror” are virtually identical – and she had the courtesy to admit it might have been an error (personally I don’t think so) within minutes of the debate. As for saving the President as that ridiculous story calls it, he was way ahead on many issues other than that small, second rank issue. The difference with Fox News is that it makes no attempt at impartiality which CNN definitely does – although you will disagree, but I am expressing my opinion having watched both channels for years – and it’s focus group broke every rule of unbiased research. Fox is a blight on American democracy of Goebells level sophistication – it skews civil debate to the point where it is impossible and bas been caught actively lying repeatedly. That is deeply offensive and dangerous. In any other free country in the world it would be investigated at least. The First Amendment – written when freedom of speech was in real danger – has a LOT to answer for.

      Like

  3. sabinaheggie says:

    SABINA HEGGIE € COPYWRITER € 0418 744 465 sabina@sabinaheggie.com http://www.sabinaheggie.com

    Dear Stephen,

    I am a keen but silent reader of your blog and I appreciate your diverse and interesting articles. I particularly like your advertising F-ups as I am myself a copywriter. I was sent a link last night to an Amazon page and couldn¹t resist sharing it with you. You may have already come across it, but here it is anyway. I read it in a cafe and laughed so hard people gave me strange looks. Scroll down to the reviews following the item. Make sure you¹re not in a public place when you do. http://www.amazon.com/Veet-Hair-Removal-Creme-200ml/dp/B000KKNQBK/ref=sr_1_5 ?s=hpc&ie=UTF8&qid=1350532842&sr=1-5&keywords=veet

    Keep up the excellent blogging!

    Sabina

    On 18/10/12 1:20 AM, “Well, This Is What I Think” wrote:

    > Stephen “Yolly” Yolland posted: ” “I hate your tie.” “Well, I hate your tie > more.” That the race for the White House has tightened is undoubted. > That it is still likely Obama will get back seems probable. This ” >

    Like

  4. Anonymous says:

    Hola! I’ve been reading your website for a while now and finally got the bravery to go ahead and give you a shout out from Porter in Texas! Just wanted to say keep up the good work!

    Like

What do YOU think? That's what matters. Please comment!

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s